tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24483073545444975752024-02-19T07:11:33.843-08:00Why Im Not a DemocratUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger600125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2448307354544497575.post-78868240065529076822018-07-27T08:10:00.000-07:002018-07-28T02:30:36.885-07:00Push-Poll Mystery in Southern Oregon<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><h3 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Who done it? And what did they do, really? </span></h3><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhb9Vrr062yl95bIMP9O-JMYyRimvDDfLHd1_Rn3Fn54E9CRapFwMUvhYgANuRihixwkKqLeXSJpWoZ8EKgoCkLal7zMojAAccn3DuUcdLs4fq9GAOP5xdcTdBx4cyP3YJZ9hJchJs_3Iw/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-07-27+at+7.55.37+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhb9Vrr062yl95bIMP9O-JMYyRimvDDfLHd1_Rn3Fn54E9CRapFwMUvhYgANuRihixwkKqLeXSJpWoZ8EKgoCkLal7zMojAAccn3DuUcdLs4fq9GAOP5xdcTdBx4cyP3YJZ9hJchJs_3Iw/s400/Screen+Shot+2018-07-27+at+7.55.37+AM.png" width="301" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Hd2e_tRBlY" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;"><b>CLICK; Maxwell Smart: "Would you believe. . . "</b></span></a></td></tr></tbody></table><h3 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></h3><h3 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Advertising testing, probably.</span></h3><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>Someone wants to know what lies and half-truths people will believe.</b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>My current thinking is that we did <i>not </i>see a push-poll.</b> <b>In the long run, what we are seeing is worse.</b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">It is too early in the season for push-polls. What local citizens experienced and objected to was some <i>ad testing</i>. It was a preview of coming attractions: ugly ads. People weren't being pushed, they were being tested to see how they can best be pushed.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">What lie will you believe?</span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Who is out there testing ads? PACs and organized lobby groups with the money to do it, and there is lots of money sloshing around. The Senate District 3 race is one of the swing districts which will determine whether the Oregon Senate has 18 Democrats, or perhaps only 16 or 17. Either way, it is a majority--there are 30 Senators-- but if it is 18 then Democrats would have the 60% majority necessary to pass revenue bills without Republican votes. </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Who asked the negative poll questions that got people surprised and angry?</span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> 1. <i>Probably not National Research, Inc.</i> That company got paid some $14,850 by the No Supermajorities PAC, an in kind contribution to Jessica Gomez, and they did in fact do a poll. They had been a prime suspect for me. I don't think they are the ones with the nastiest questions. Alan DeBoer says he knows exactly the questions they asked--which he won't reveal, but said they were not the harshest ones. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3Td6uSVjDAbL14-PpuLxD0vJIiWDx4bQxhW3PWmgs99_9UJptauiogV1IFR7D9Iz76Glv5plUHlF6zmmRkD8FNXLC61LUXnew7_VPPPhKEYumWuUNsRFy54mSe9VliHUzf8Xwgf6r7F0/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-07-27+at+7.01.07+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3Td6uSVjDAbL14-PpuLxD0vJIiWDx4bQxhW3PWmgs99_9UJptauiogV1IFR7D9Iz76Glv5plUHlF6zmmRkD8FNXLC61LUXnew7_VPPPhKEYumWuUNsRFy54mSe9VliHUzf8Xwgf6r7F0/s400/Screen+Shot+2018-07-27+at+7.01.07+AM.png" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">"Not <i>my</i> poll."</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I spoke with the owner of the company, Adam Geller, and he, too, wouldn't reveal the questions. Their secrecy doesn't surprise me. Their thoughts as to Jessica Gomez's and Jeff Golden's potential weak spots would be too revealing of their campaign strategy. It wouldn't surprise me if some of the questions would come across as mean spirited, and contrary to their goal to present Jessica Gomez as "nice", not vicious, but there would have been no need to include statements that were memorable as vicious against Gomez.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"></span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Adam Geller suggested there was likely a second poll, taking place the same time as theirs, and the confusion comes because my informants are reporting two polls, theirs plus one that is harder-hitting. Alan DeBoer--one of the people who happened to have been polled--got the harsh one.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Am I naive to believe Alan DeBoer (who many would say is dishonest <i>per se</i> since he has two strikes against him, being a salesman of used cars and a politician, both) and Adam Geller (a New Jersey political operative and spin creator who works for Chris Christie and Donald Trump)? Surely, I am a gullible fool to believe <i>them.</i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">In fact, I do believe them.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The poll they created was a poll, not a message piece, and it may well have tested negative statements, but not the worst of them. It was too long to be a simple hit piece, and the No Supermajorities PAC probably wouldn't attack Gomez.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I believe there is enough statewide interest and PAC available for there to be multiple polls. One of my informants, Gayle Lewis, felt quite certain she had pinned down a different name for the source of the poll: Long River Research. Such a firm exists, in Beaverton, Oregon. I will see what I can learn from them.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I asked Geller why a second poll had not shown up on the Secretary of State's report. He said that it might not show up until it had been fully paid for, and invoicing might be several weeks delayed. As an alternative he said the organization that commissioned the poll might be attempting to construe it as internal background research for their own purposes and not an election expense, and therefore not report it at all. The money trail is not foolproof or prompt, he said.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> 2. P<i>robably not the OEA.</i> The OEA PAC reports spending $40,000 for election related surveys, and I spoke with Trent Lutz of their organization. He said they favored Jeff Golden and that local people here might be helping his campaign, but said that they were not going to be fully engaged at the state level because Golden is refusing PAC money. He said they had not done polling down here. I believe him. He didn't seem that motivated.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> 3. <i>Probably not Curt Ankerberg or any other provocateur.</i> The poll was too long and complicated to be a prank. A prankster would have asked four or five incendiary questions, then moved on. It was probably a real poll by a real professional, but one administered so poorly that my informants couldn't quite believe it was real. </span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Occam's razor, again. When forced to choose between a clever, well designed conspiracy of evil-doing, or simple stupidity and incompetence, go with incompetence.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>The take-away: </b>Some group with the capacity to spend $10,000 or more is testing negative ads and messages, and it isn't being coordinated with the campaigns. The Republican side has the money to do this, but we don't really know which side is behind this. But people don't t<i>est</i> negative ads unless they have the capacity and interest to <i>run </i>negative ads.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>The real ugly stuff comes later. </b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><br /></div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2448307354544497575.post-67792318031448940192018-07-26T07:28:00.000-07:002018-07-28T02:30:37.360-07:00UPDATE-- Push-Poll in Medford-Ashland State Senate campaign<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><h3 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">There is a smoking gun. </span></h3><h3 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></h3><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6suUyB2lCxypRf4YqqlaHlDQ7lusjSrb_eGSRqEHjxGn9CqMtC9OBtOQhXT3BsaRycdUBQhMXbnqNYDvtH5JOXIFCD9XeiT0vX6ks8wNcqO7B-LLdTyfMso_fqCQ5f4lAqHVhllsk7xQ/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-07-26+at+6.10.13+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6suUyB2lCxypRf4YqqlaHlDQ7lusjSrb_eGSRqEHjxGn9CqMtC9OBtOQhXT3BsaRycdUBQhMXbnqNYDvtH5JOXIFCD9XeiT0vX6ks8wNcqO7B-LLdTyfMso_fqCQ5f4lAqHVhllsk7xQ/s320/Screen+Shot+2018-07-26+at+6.10.13+AM.png" width="236" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">Culprit? National Research.</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><h3 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The question is whether it is the <i>right </i>smoking gun.</span></h3><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>One thing we can do is follow the money.</b></span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b><br /></b></span><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Here is what we know:</b></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">1. At least seven local citizens got called for an opinion poll. All seven were surprised and unhappy at the harshness and dishonesty of some of the statements in the poll attributed to Jeff Golden and Jessica Gomez. The citizens were familiar enough with the candidates that they knew the statements to have been flatly dishonest. </span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">2. All of the local citizens suspected it <i>might not be</i> <i>a poll at all</i>, but rather a negative hit piece, intended to insert negative, dishonest information, on<i> both</i> candidates.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">3. We can track the money that might have paid for this, using the State of Oregon's tracking system:<a href="https://www.blogger.com/goog_1034858651"> </a></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b><a href="https://secure.sos.state.or.us/orestar/gotoPublicTransactionSearch.do--%C2%A0" target="_blank">Click</a> </b></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">On the left is "Transaction Purpose". Scroll down within that box to "Surveys and Polls" then click "Search."</span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">One of the top polling expenditures was paid by "No Supermajorities PAC" for an amount of $14,850. The line looks like this.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxYVF39zz059cXvAmB_C1wP8qvYjS-pBporxSto-SyAKQev59wo2g-qT9eQpWGOZflRu_nTNpH5QWchkr4SuEXJjGf8AQ82TaAWo7fH_XNaVWqn57Fut8x0zrRQUUy3-wYYOB-OiG2qCY/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-07-25+at+2.30.02+PM.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="34" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxYVF39zz059cXvAmB_C1wP8qvYjS-pBporxSto-SyAKQev59wo2g-qT9eQpWGOZflRu_nTNpH5QWchkr4SuEXJjGf8AQ82TaAWo7fH_XNaVWqn57Fut8x0zrRQUUy3-wYYOB-OiG2qCY/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-07-25+at+2.30.02+PM.png" width="640" /></a></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Clicking on the magnifying glass icon for detail shows it was a Survey for SD3, and it was done by a company called "National Research" of Hazlet, New Jersey. The detail looks like this:</span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhb1IkfhTsRiydK13aaLlFbqJKocOVqMQezN_C16YZj13upWyR06OA5MiZzbadZD2VVpVkUyCCXWlNK-QfiJ26-9x8GOOLcMMZPiYt8ZrNhi68sWtlLwTbhcQG4IH0XU9WdzUoXXEYkKqw/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-07-24+at+11.52.48+AM.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="222" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhb1IkfhTsRiydK13aaLlFbqJKocOVqMQezN_C16YZj13upWyR06OA5MiZzbadZD2VVpVkUyCCXWlNK-QfiJ26-9x8GOOLcMMZPiYt8ZrNhi68sWtlLwTbhcQG4IH0XU9WdzUoXXEYkKqw/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-07-24+at+11.52.48+AM.png" width="640" /></a></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">That looks promising. </span><i style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Did either candidate show this as an in-kind </i><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i>contribution?</i></span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Yes. </span><br /><i style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></i><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">There is no sign of it for</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> Jeff Golden, but for Jessica Gomez we see a $14,850 in-kind contribution. It looks like this: </span></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVEk-dltwxYf97uklAxt3qILfdKN00ZvRgDlwVlHatH9YXoMdd492BSTuYanwbgapU-qVmJ61-8mu6MDwxnUodJ85Sfs-bN3VBNhJadIwDwSXwxr-WTte4kvk_VDn-CqZ2CtfIX_-rL3Q/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-07-25+at+2.30.02+PM.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="33" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVEk-dltwxYf97uklAxt3qILfdKN00ZvRgDlwVlHatH9YXoMdd492BSTuYanwbgapU-qVmJ61-8mu6MDwxnUodJ85Sfs-bN3VBNhJadIwDwSXwxr-WTte4kvk_VDn-CqZ2CtfIX_-rL3Q/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-07-25+at+2.30.02+PM.png" width="640" /></a></span></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">What kind of firm is National Research of Hazlet, New Jersey? Their website says they are in the "opinion management business" and the very top tab for their array of services is "AD TESTING."</span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJv941_sy62YmXioAegFiRq_MmC_soWDheZOwFdRd6VYrfA2DkmekN9f1bz5yqqiACg3HKzaJwN4lmFQz3RYuIdEZNN_0fOdkSxlDCrmtqXeXZLF1DTMI-eDZVC9GPGsm8UTPJ5nU2nwQ/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-07-25+at+2.55.07+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJv941_sy62YmXioAegFiRq_MmC_soWDheZOwFdRd6VYrfA2DkmekN9f1bz5yqqiACg3HKzaJwN4lmFQz3RYuIdEZNN_0fOdkSxlDCrmtqXeXZLF1DTMI-eDZVC9GPGsm8UTPJ5nU2nwQ/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-07-25+at+2.55.07+PM.png" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;"><b><a href="http://www.nationalresearchinc.com/" target="_blank">http://www.nationalresearchinc.com</a></b></span></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">That was exactly what the nasty push-poll was ostensibly doing--testing which statements might get people to change their minds.</span></div><div><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>Right time. Right amount of money. Right purpose. And the firm that does the work advertises itself as doing exactly what the push-poll did. </b></span><br /><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></b><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">The smoking gun.</b><br /><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Maybe.</span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b><br /></b></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I brought this information to the attention of Alan DeBoer. I said it looked very suspicious. </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> </span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">DeBoer had told me he was confident that this company with the in kind contribution to Jessica Gomez was <i>not</i> the firm--well, "90% sure." It <i>must</i> be someone else, he said. He observed that, yes, he is actively raising money for the No Supermajority PAC, but we didn't contract for a nasty push-poll.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I said I would contact National Research personally (I have a call into them) but I suspected they are unwilling to discuss the poll with me. I said it makes sense that this is the source of the push-poll--assuming political activity is reported, as is required by law.</span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">In a second conversation yesterday DeBoer said that he had--in hand--a copy of the questions that were asked in the $14,850 poll. He said they did not contain the push-poll questions that he heard on the phone. But he</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> acknowledged that he gets lied to all the time in politics, and we are never quite sure what we know. </span><i style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Someone</i><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> presumably paid for the negative push-poll.</span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Maybe it was a rogue pollster. Or maybe an independent prankster, he wondered, who wouldn't report it.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> Could Curt Ankerberg have done it? </span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"></span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Curt Ankerberg is a very talented, motivated, politically active advocate and provocateur--someone sharply critical of both Golden and Gomez. He ran for this seat and lost narrowly to Gomez. Ankerberg has written critically of both candidates in the comment section here on this blog. Ankerberg is highly intelligent and sophisticated, and he has a pattern of working with aliases and anonymously when doing political advocacy. I said the "random" call to the office of John Watt's public affairs consultancy was curious because Ankerberg mentions Watt and the Chamber of Commerce by name as local malefactors and crony capitalists. I think he would consider them a fun target. Ankerberg would be capable of pulling this off, but it would have required him to</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> have arranged for a variety of callers, including people whose first language did not appear to be English, and have arranged for scores of calls in order to have had seven people--five of whom are not closely tied to politics--to notice and complain.</span><br /><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjV2ZU_okNoTbN0yHr6PyCXHMaObN5sDA-17j_7cVH-8toOEu_6BUQmEdaYXZxXrmi11CgUvPAQCdHOK7fGKDMGUnT-Ukdyx4UBrwsgUebVk8gVd3mCEdW624LU9k4uHw_UcV73dgO1jWY/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-07-22+at+9.04.31+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjV2ZU_okNoTbN0yHr6PyCXHMaObN5sDA-17j_7cVH-8toOEu_6BUQmEdaYXZxXrmi11CgUvPAQCdHOK7fGKDMGUnT-Ukdyx4UBrwsgUebVk8gVd3mCEdW624LU9k4uHw_UcV73dgO1jWY/s200/Screen+Shot+2018-07-22+at+9.04.31+AM.png" width="154" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">Golden</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"></span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">It <i>could</i> be Ankerberg--or some other provocateur--but I think the</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> single most straightforward explanation of the push-poll is </span><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">that this is yet one more example of what happens every cycle in this District--out of control upstate interference in the election, and that DeBoer is being lied to.</b><br /><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The well-established pattern is that political operatives and vendors consider Medford-Ashland candidates too naive and squeamish to do politics correctly--to play real hardball with negative campaigns--so they write ads, do mailers, film TV commercials, and do polls that are "for our own good to get the win." They ask for forgiveness, not permission.</span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The upstate funders and vendors are not very concerned about who gets hurt down here. They think </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">they have evidence to show that negative campaigning works. All is fair in love and political warfare. So they do hard negative stuff in an effort to win, and think to insulate the candidates by keeping them at arms length.</span><br /><i style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></i><i style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"> In recent history this has backfired badly.</i><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> Their activity has been so extreme and dishonest that they have hurt the reputations of the supposed beneficiary, Jim Wright, David Dotterer, Tonia Moro. Each ended up needing to try to explain away ad campaigns and political activity done on their behalf, and were left with admitting they were </span><i style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">dishones</i><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">t or else admitting they were <i>inept</i> and <i>careless</i> in</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> being unable to control what was done on their behalf.</span><br /><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJji3jBzsA0bmLufpfW5SHJ-wW-yccpYvJ-sQJd5he6STZ-O4grb8bS3erCx2l0FEgk4G8z5CmdXZMgEpOo6gsDdm09j61b9NbfQegav98lQe0VB9CH1SntFOtbScF54o8yW2a-FnHJ4g/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-07-22+at+9.05.10+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJji3jBzsA0bmLufpfW5SHJ-wW-yccpYvJ-sQJd5he6STZ-O4grb8bS3erCx2l0FEgk4G8z5CmdXZMgEpOo6gsDdm09j61b9NbfQegav98lQe0VB9CH1SntFOtbScF54o8yW2a-FnHJ4g/s200/Screen+Shot+2018-07-22+at+9.05.10+AM.png" width="165" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">Gomez</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Maybe this kerfuffle will cause upstate vendors and out of state polling firms to be more aware of the potential political cost to hijacking local campaigns. And it is a head's up to the candidates Golden and Gomez. </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Watch out for your friends. </span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">It is <i>your</i> reputation on the line, not theirs.</span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"></span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">No one knows or cares about the name or reputation of Adam Geller, the owner of the polling firm National Research, Inc., whose face is at the top of this page. The firm did work for Chris Christie, now Trump and the No Supermajority PAC. Maybe they were the culprit, but in any case they move on. The candidates will still live right here. The name local people will remember is the candidate on whose behalf the dirty work was done. The stink lingers.</span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I will keep trying to get to the bottom of this.</span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>UPDATE FROM CURT ANKERBERG.</b> Since I mention him by name as a person of suspicion, I am adding this immediate response by Ankerberg.</span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #202020;">"I can assure you that I had zero to do with this political poll. Al DeBoer and his friends did it. Follow the money. Never trust a DeBoer. If DeBoer inferred that I was involved, then he's lying.</span><br style="caret-color: rgb(32, 32, 32); color: #202020;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(32, 32, 32); color: #202020;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #202020;">I'm a conservative republican, and both Golden and Gomez are liberal democrats, so of course I oppose their politics, but nevertheless, for this particular senate election, I support Jeff Golden, and I hope that Jeff Golden wins. I encourage all conservatives to abstain from voting for liberal Gomez.</span><br style="caret-color: rgb(32, 32, 32); color: #202020;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(32, 32, 32); color: #202020;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #202020;">Golden may be liberal, but Gomez is out-and-out criminal. Gomez represents "bought government" and "influence peddling". She's the "front man" for special interest groups. Gomez is a liar, too. She's well-aware of these polls. For me, bought government is a bigger threat than liberalism. Corporations (and unions) can out-spend individuals, and they are creating an environment whereby government serves them, and not people. If Gomez gets elected, then you'll see more of your tax dollars being spent to pay for the Chamber of Commerce's private developments (corporate welfare)."</span></span></span><br /><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2448307354544497575.post-45878846041100588502018-07-25T08:19:00.000-07:002018-07-28T02:30:37.756-07:00Georgia Republicans choose angry populism over conservatism<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><h3 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">It is Trump's Party, now more than ever.</span></h3><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>Oregon Republican voters chose Trump over Kasich four to one. There is a culture war going on and Trump is the resistance. </b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>Democrats beware: There is a Red Wave out there. It may be <i>growing</i>.</b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJeld-UTiNmV5ULZFGiA-LnKBCMwGOXFTzTgfDhyWL4XbQL-RTKZC_zq1s4zTKmQcb-jYsUmMu4O54nph4DALiD0mmJur3ee1FFDxGy0SWW6zGoYi9rMzak0K8fNBzSE0Au8tWaq664jo/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-07-25+at+8.14.47+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJeld-UTiNmV5ULZFGiA-LnKBCMwGOXFTzTgfDhyWL4XbQL-RTKZC_zq1s4zTKmQcb-jYsUmMu4O54nph4DALiD0mmJur3ee1FFDxGy0SWW6zGoYi9rMzak0K8fNBzSE0Au8tWaq664jo/s400/Screen+Shot+2018-07-25+at+8.14.47+AM.png" width="376" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">Nancy Pelosi, boogeyman.</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The Oregon primary took place in May, 2016. Trump had demolished the rest of the field, leaving only Trump, Ted Cruz, and John Kasich. Trump the ethno-nationalist populist celebrity. Cruz the unabashed Constitutional conservative. John Kasich, the get-things-done experienced conservative. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Trump won, with 253,000 votes; Cruz got 65,000; Kasich got 62,000.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Yesterday, in Georgia, Republican voters had a clear choice of their own, in a run-off election between Brian Kemp, the Georgia Secretary of State, and Casey Cagle, the Lieutenant Governor. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Kemp won big.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Kemp got Trump's tweeted endorsement a week before the election. <i>Kemp ran as a Trump-style ethno-nationalist populist.</i> Gayle ran more as a conservative, with the backing of the state's GOP leaders. That signals what kind of party the GOP voters want: Trump-style.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"></span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Kemp messaged opposition to the policies and values of the coastal elites:</span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"></span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> <b> Identity</b>: "<i>This is the state of Georgia. We are a red state."</i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"></span><br /><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1pSFMcex3fEYQGVRfnqsdjmnFrpRpI8-yQRFWA9pBS4pd5zVhoWCdfcBr-iau8GyhEkt34TvEh51QKA4y3AG7kQAezjv5Bv-e8pSka4t_Cq4EgNBVAOzyr6Z3T4xU4Gvp2-8vynOIXR4/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-07-25+at+7.04.52+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="184" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1pSFMcex3fEYQGVRfnqsdjmnFrpRpI8-yQRFWA9pBS4pd5zVhoWCdfcBr-iau8GyhEkt34TvEh51QKA4y3AG7kQAezjv5Bv-e8pSka4t_Cq4EgNBVAOzyr6Z3T4xU4Gvp2-8vynOIXR4/s320/Screen+Shot+2018-07-25+at+7.04.52+AM.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQBENgYJxgs" target="_blank"><b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">Click: 30 seconds. "I got a big truck.</span></b>"</a></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> <b>Resistance to cultural liberals</b>: <i>"W</i></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i>e don’t need the radical left telling us how to live, worship and raise our family," </i>and <i>"you want a politically incorrect conservative, that's me."</i></span></span><br /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i><br /></i></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The ad revels in in-your-face symbols of disdain for the urban, Prius driving, liberal.</span> <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i>"I've got a big truck." </i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i><br /></i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i>"I own guns that no one is taking away."</i></span><i style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </i></div><div><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i></i></span></span><br /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i></i></span></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333;"> </i><span style="color: #333333;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><b>Pugnacious, bring-it-on tone:</b> He ran an ad showing him holding a shotgun in his pickup truck. He doesn't use the polite liberal language of "undocumented immigrants." He says he has the truck and gun "</span></span></span></span><span style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i>just in case I need to round up criminal illegals and take them home myself.”</i></span></span></div><div><span style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i></i></span></span><br /><span style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i></i></span></span></div><div><span style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b> Attack news media: </b>"<i>the fake news media machine</i>."</span></span></div><div><span style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"></span></span><br /><span style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"></span></span></div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBNe9ljOBmmPQJCObBlt3zzcYvklihKnPCKOkcVPCSIdpffM27-M3e4R0ipZg2_qLpvK-CcoLoAy-6fYQ4Wh7sV-BuTq_48_HADq4FS9PjeCXSzJ8ExBiNzu9Iw07pzow_d82FeXrwpVI/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-07-25+at+6.54.52+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="205" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBNe9ljOBmmPQJCObBlt3zzcYvklihKnPCKOkcVPCSIdpffM27-M3e4R0ipZg2_qLpvK-CcoLoAy-6fYQ4Wh7sV-BuTq_48_HADq4FS9PjeCXSzJ8ExBiNzu9Iw07pzow_d82FeXrwpVI/s320/Screen+Shot+2018-07-25+at+6.54.52+AM.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQBENgYJxgs" target="_blank"><b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">Click: 30 seconds</span></b></a></td></tr></tbody></table><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #333333;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"> </span></span><b style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333;">Guns:</b><span style="color: #333333;"> Ran a controversial commercial holding, pointing a gun. It imbeds a<i style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"> message of cultural conservatism,</i> the adult man demanding respect from the younger man thinking to date his daughter, with Kemp exercising authority from a position of power. The young man kept saying "Yes, sir."</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #333333;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br /></span></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #333333;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><b> Immigration</b></span></span></span><span style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>:</b> Kemp's ad "Track and Deport" starts with victims "all killed by illegal immigrants," and defines immigration as a public safety issue. Donald Trump's pre-runoff endorsement tweet noted "</span><span style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Brian is tough on crime, strong on the border and illegal immigration. He loves our Military and our Vets and protects our Second Amendment. I give him my full and total endorsement."</span></div><div><span style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"></span></div><h3 style="text-align: left;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">There is a message here for Democrats. </span></h3><div><span style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhh0B2w4osF-v-z_-Z9MLgwfXXUhta91rX_2GSteiYnF3UgF6BnJVnz7UUMxCeY2gZWFRkDJfQ9IMwSGPQqDrOo-2uq7ohO09KFYLMciwC_7FE3ZeO35woAccHAgydW2oartZcjhFkpi30/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-07-25+at+7.20.36+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhh0B2w4osF-v-z_-Z9MLgwfXXUhta91rX_2GSteiYnF3UgF6BnJVnz7UUMxCeY2gZWFRkDJfQ9IMwSGPQqDrOo-2uq7ohO09KFYLMciwC_7FE3ZeO35woAccHAgydW2oartZcjhFkpi30/s320/Screen+Shot+2018-07-25+at+7.20.36+AM.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/brian-kemp-ads-701456/" target="_blank"><b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">Click: 30 seconds. Scroll down to the ad.</span></b></a></td></tr></tbody></table><div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The political situation for Trump should be devastating. Michael Cohen is releasing tapes of Trump paying off a Playboy model. Stormy Daniels is dogging him. His former campaign manager is cooperating with the Mueller probe. Russians are indicted for interfering with the election on Trump's behalf. T</span><span style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">he FISA warrant material showed that there was </span><span style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">plenty of reason for the FBI to look at Carter Page. Trump himself </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> looked like a wimp and puppet in Helsinki, as if he is hiding something and Putin knows the secret. </span></div><div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><b>Trump is weak, right? No. </b></span></span></div><div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><i style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></i></span></span></div><div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><i style="font-weight: bold;">Notwithstanding all that, Trump has the support of his base, and it is expanding. </i>His popularity is up, now at 45%. He has some 88% support among Republicans. He <i>must be doing something very popular </i>to have held onto his base amid all this.</span></span></div><div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">Yes, he is. He is creating and riding a populist backlash against the current liberal Democratic message.</span></span></div><div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">The Georgia vote last night confirms Georgia Republicans want someone who will fight coastal elite values, symbols, and language, and do it with pride and pugnaciousness. The Kemp message is that <i>we Georgians are OK,</i> in our gas guzzling trucks, our guns, our values and we don't want outsiders risking us or shaming us. It is defensive, circle-the-wagon thinking. The enemy is Nancy Pelosi, Hillary Clinton, Barrack Obama, illegal immigrants, gun control advocates, and anyone who wants to say "undocumented immigrant" rather than "criminal illegals."</span></span><br /><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br /></span></span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">It is tribal. The "real American" tribe is fighting back against the new, liberal, diverse, multicultural, carefully respectful, ecologically sensitive, gun-fearing tribe.</span></span></div><div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The question for Democrats is whether they back off, rethink and moderate their message to take some of the sharp edges off, for example by saying they do in fact support border security and lawful entry. Or, maybe they are confident that they are both morally right and on solid ground politically supporting with messages of "abolish ICE" and sanctuary cities. </span><br /><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Trump--and Kemp--have made it harder for Democrats to return to their border-enforcement policies of a decade ago. Trump and Kemp have drawn a line in the sand and Democrats will feel a loss of pride if they appear to move toward it. The Democratic left may call it out as "centrism." Bill Clinton has moved from hero to backstabber in the minds of many progressives.</span></div><div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Democrats may well have won the culture war on gays, but they have not won it on immigration. If they stand pat, then the November election showdown may take place on weak ground for Democrats: Trump saying it is a matter of <i>safety</i> from vicious criminals, with Democrats saying that things aren't all that bad on immigration and we should all be better to one another.</span><br /><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">This could be a red November.</span></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i><br /></i></span></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i><br /></i></span></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i><br /></i></span></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i><br /></i></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2448307354544497575.post-54058763613835623122018-07-24T19:48:00.000-07:002018-07-24T20:38:27.992-07:00Californian Dem Party Endorses Kevin De Leon OVER Dianne Feinstein (THE HUMANIST REPORT)<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2448307354544497575.post-81042376109255433522018-07-24T18:41:00.000-07:002018-07-24T20:38:28.246-07:00U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin Calls on Trump Administration to Support Farmers Hurt by Trade Wars<br /><br />Senator Tammy Baldwin's office issued the following today:<br /><br /><br /><br />U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin Calls on Trump Administration to Support Farmers Hurt by Trade Wars <br /><br />“Without prompt action, we could lose farmers and the rural businesses they support and depend on at a rapid rate”<br />WASHINGTON, D.C. – Wisconsin farmers are struggling and the Trump <br />administration’s trade wars aren’t helping, in fact theyUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2448307354544497575.post-37805914700049569102018-07-24T17:39:00.000-07:002018-07-24T20:38:28.435-07:00Cantwell Calls for Action, Slams Giveaways to Big Oil Companies as Gas Prices Rise <br /><br /><br />Senator Maria Cantwell's office issued the following today:<br /><br /><br /><br /> <br /> 07.24.18<br /> <br />Cantwell Calls for Action, Slams Giveaways to Big Oil Companies as Gas Prices Rise <br /><br />state drivers forced to pay $452 million more for fuel this summer<br />WASHINGTON, D.C. – As summer gas prices throughout the <br />United States have reached their highest point in the last four summers,<br /> U.S. Senator Maria Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2448307354544497575.post-61154429854273799682018-07-24T09:10:00.000-07:002018-07-28T02:30:38.153-07:00Should Democrats stop doing fundraisers? Seriously.<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><h3 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The wine and cheese fundraiser may be dangerous for Democrats. The Bernie Sanders wing of the progressive left is skeptical of them.</span></h3><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5IehnDIYgeT0xIO7q-uk08aoCD8G9-gL-hyt18wc7tw8YMcyWuahhDZWhO8ACtxmFH-zGz-56UBHl160_7wWgbWtA-Orew8aHKme_6QHZha57bY9zG3c3VWf0ZbMGjwYF793qlr1J02Y/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-07-22+at+9.04.31+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5IehnDIYgeT0xIO7q-uk08aoCD8G9-gL-hyt18wc7tw8YMcyWuahhDZWhO8ACtxmFH-zGz-56UBHl160_7wWgbWtA-Orew8aHKme_6QHZha57bY9zG3c3VWf0ZbMGjwYF793qlr1J02Y/s320/Screen+Shot+2018-07-22+at+9.04.31+AM.png" width="246" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Golden</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>A fundraiser is a signal that the Democrat is comfortable with the financially comfortable. </b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div><b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Does it suggest the candidate is not</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> really progressive enough?</span></b></div><div><b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></b></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">A goal of this blog is to notice the things that are so obvious they are un-noticed. We have taken the wine and cheese fundraiser for granted as a source of good, clean money. The best money. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Now it is being noticed, and not everyone on the left likes them.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">There has been a division between <b>clean money</b> and <b>unclean money</b>. Unclean money comes from people or groups with an obvious self-interest in policy. We understand that a group, say the Oregon Gasoline Dealers Association, might have an agenda of reversing rules monitoring gasoline spill runoff. They give money to politicians based on who agrees and disagrees with penalties on spills into nearby waterways. People consider this distasteful, but legal campaign financing. Dirty money.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Then there is <i>clean</i> money. Call up people who generally share your party and point of view and ask them for money for your campaign. There is no implied policy commitment, just general agreement. Candidates call people with <i>capacity to give</i>, perhaps inviting them to an event where a certain amount of social affirmation takes place. There it is: the wine and cheese fundraiser.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><span style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="27" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIMkn6vmPX0K384bMqDoT5MGmof_T8BmRs7A_yeeMgNV5IyLhJ7aZGZWzIJZhFeMKCJEG9rE18RSXr33aF_eUsRuSOg3dWPU6ArO4ankb0yLJqkRTwsY8onUbJK7CqgeElp9AzEJWGDpg/s400/Screen+Shot+2018-07-24+at+7.49.51+AM.png" width="400" /></span></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://secure.sos.state.or.us/orestar/gotoPublicTransactionSearchResults.do?cneSearchButtonName=next&cneSearchFilerCommitteeTxt=jessica+gomez&cneSearchContributorTxtSearchType=C&cneSearchFilerCommitteeTxtSearchType=C&cneSearchPageIdx=1" target="_blank"><b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">Click.</span></b></a></td></tr></tbody></table><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">In the local State Senate race between <b>Democrat Jeff Golden </b>and <b>Republican Jessica Gomez</b>, the distinction between these two forms of campaign financing is shaping up to be a major issue. Gomez is receiving money from PACs. For example, the Oregon Business and Industry PAC just gave her $25,000. That PAC itself aggregates money from businesses around the state. Oregon has an excellent, easy to navigate system for looking at contributions and expenditures. Try it yourself. Go to Oregon Secretary of State's Orestar system. Here is a link to the </span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">"Transaction Search" screen:<b> </b></span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b><a href="https://secure.sos.state.or.us/orestar/gotoPublicTransactionSearch.do">https://secure.sos.state.or.us/orestar/gotoPublicTransactionSearch.do</a></b></span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYlWzZD1Oy8Bkg7w5sH4gxqipeEYLbg2u6u_xEKpiWPaSQKnW-iHtjqWUPKdqLyLipQ3ayMItK04Q0Q93l7OnC3IfPYbyZSkfYFG1HX2vTHIuF0yZuQjzPXabBlvS7D5ccIUQph3gxrlI/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-07-24+at+7.37.39+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="292" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYlWzZD1Oy8Bkg7w5sH4gxqipeEYLbg2u6u_xEKpiWPaSQKnW-iHtjqWUPKdqLyLipQ3ayMItK04Q0Q93l7OnC3IfPYbyZSkfYFG1HX2vTHIuF0yZuQjzPXabBlvS7D5ccIUQph3gxrlI/s400/Screen+Shot+2018-07-24+at+7.37.39+AM.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Just Click on the Link for PAC. It shows who donates to<i> them</i>.</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">On the second line, for "Filer" </span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">type in either "Jessica Gomez" or "Jeff Golden." Then click "Search." Bingo! Up comes the transactions for expenditures and contributions. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">If the contribution comes from a PAC you can click on the PAC name and get a detail of who gives to <i>them</i>, like this one from the Oregon Business and Industry Candidate PAC.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">A point that is instantly apparent when one compares the two candidates is the simple fact that Gomez gets lots and lots of business and industry PAC money, and Golden does not. Golden has money from familiar local names who have made contributions of $250, $500, and $1,000, plus some out of state people (marked in red). Don't trust my observation. Look for yourself.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">"<b>Clean money" and "dirty money."</b> Voters can decide for themselves if the distinction between the sources of money is important. Many will not. Still, the difference is transparent thanks to the reporting system Here is the main link to Orestar. </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b><a href="https://secure.sos.state.or.us/orestar/CommitteeSearchFirstPage.do?startup=2" target="_blank">Click: Main Page. Look on the left for "Transactions"</a> </b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I think voters notice the <i>content of the ad</i> not the source of the money. If the source is to move up to voters' consciousness, it will be because media in its various forms <i>bring it to light.</i> </span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">That includes this blog.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>The source of money is important because it reflects what kind of people and political interests support the candidate. It reveals who the candidate really is. </b> Gomez gets money from business PACs. Golden gets money from prosperous politically involved people. Gomez <i>also</i> gets contributions from prosperous politically involved people, but the overwhelming majority comes from PACs. Look for yourself.</span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">So, is this a big winner for Golden. Maybe not. For one thing, lots of people want a pro-business candidate.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Getting so-called "clean money" from individual donors has become controversial within </span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">progressive Democratic circles. Bernie Sanders just sent out a fundraising appeal titled "A Tale of Two Different Meetings." He spoke of his own well attended rally in Kansas City, that headlined both him and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. <b>He contrasted and condemned a <i>Democratic</i> event elsewhere. </b>"There was quite a different event in Columbus, Ohio. Two hundred and fifty wealthy invited Democratic donors" attended a event. Sanders' enemy? <i>Democratic "Party members and fundraisers."</i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgheIEDzDFOAwF2weubHTtU9OlEaq-5qfh0nDzd3ykmw4rdYurU4yq3vCKWcUENLEpnAOxXb6PuUPI24eI65Nu8kn2aFWJoSZYGeCU9sGa6OKvBPVqP2gOEQUibvBmeR-BwTfewK_jYCVU/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-07-24+at+8.30.16+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="110" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgheIEDzDFOAwF2weubHTtU9OlEaq-5qfh0nDzd3ykmw4rdYurU4yq3vCKWcUENLEpnAOxXb6PuUPI24eI65Nu8kn2aFWJoSZYGeCU9sGa6OKvBPVqP2gOEQUibvBmeR-BwTfewK_jYCVU/s400/Screen+Shot+2018-07-24+at+8.30.16+AM.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/a22519530/moderate-democrats-2020-progressives/" target="_blank"><b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">Click: Esquire</span></b></a></td></tr></tbody></table><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">People writing in Facebook's various progressive sites had condemned Kate Brown's event in Medford last week, one I helped host. <i>How dare she hobnob with the donor class?</i> Sellout.</span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Charles Pierce, writing in Esquire, says that Democrats need to be bolder, more progressive, and to choose between the "millionaires and billionaires"--i.e. the comfortable people who have succeeded in the current economic structure--and the working people who have been squeezed by the system. </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The people who show up at wine and cheese fundraisers for people like Jeff Golden are people who are financially comfortable enough to write a campaign check. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYnSde83GzYpKn2NQKv8eJ35S8-rktHrGMQsDxggfeBdhtnED9euGnDQAtbL97XALcCQN7drQ1OYT5dFb6cXdAEIkaObouWYgGzMzszyH01NA8vPw83p8oaPFEW7XwgGjfdUpqnmgo1nQ/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-07-24+at+8.40.35+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYnSde83GzYpKn2NQKv8eJ35S8-rktHrGMQsDxggfeBdhtnED9euGnDQAtbL97XALcCQN7drQ1OYT5dFb6cXdAEIkaObouWYgGzMzszyH01NA8vPw83p8oaPFEW7XwgGjfdUpqnmgo1nQ/s320/Screen+Shot+2018-07-24+at+8.40.35+AM.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">Bernie Sanders' way to raise money.</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Bernie Sanders has a different fundraising technique: emails to a national audience that likes and supports him. People click a donate button and send $10, $25, $40. It is nice clean money--donations from people with a general amorphous agenda of support. It works for him. It won't work for everyone, and certainly not new local </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">candidates.</span><br /><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The distinction between two ways of raising money by Democrats relates both to potential policy direction--incremental change vs. big change now--and to the tribes within the Democratic Party, Hillary vs. Bernie. Wine and cheese fundraisers imply moderation. The people who write $250 checks are not struggling working people waiting for payday to buy </span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">groceries. Bernie Sanders says the future of the Democratic Party is to abandon those people and to embrace a real, large, motivated constituency of working people who understand that those comfortable physicians and lawyers and business people at the wine and cheese fundraisers are part of the problem.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>Both Jessica Gomez and Jeff Golden have campaign finance problems they will need to negotiate. </b>Gomez's is that she is inundated by money from business and industry PACs and will need to explain it. How can she be independent of them? She has plenty of money but it will look "dirty" to some people who look closely at it. Who will she represent?</span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Golden's is that the only plausible way for him to compete is to get lots of local money from individual contributions, money sufficient to get his own message out. He will need money from some version of the wine and cheese fundraiser, and the people who can attend those and write checks are the "donor class”. In the current environment some people on Golden's left will wonder what is wrong with him, that so many prosperous Medford and Ashland liberals seem to like him.</span></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2448307354544497575.post-37502683047063278322018-07-24T05:57:00.000-07:002018-07-24T20:38:28.634-07:00Iraq snapshotTuesday, July 24, 2018.<br /><br /><br />Let's start with stupidity because it needs to be challenged and called out.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Randy #FamiliesBelongTogether @randyprine 9h9 hours ago<br /><br /><br />More<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Obama untangled us from Iraq, Afghanistan Wars, and ISIS. And the Iran Deal would have kept Iran stable for 15 years. <br /><br />Instead we are headed to greater instability in Iran.<br /><br /><br /><br />1 reply20 retweets22 likes<br /><br /><br /><br />Reply<br /> 1<br /> <br /><br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2448307354544497575.post-55718689127623114212018-07-23T22:00:00.000-07:002018-07-24T20:38:28.819-07:00Cantwell Statement On Zinke’s Unintentional Document Dump Documents show Trump administration ignoring benefits of protecting public lands<br /><br />Senator Maria Cantwell's office issued the following today:<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /> <br /> 07.23.18<br /> <br />Cantwell Statement On Zinke’s Unintentional Document Dump <br /><br />Documents show Trump administration ignoring benefits of protecting public lands<br />Washington, D.C. – Today, Ranking Member of <br />the U.S. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Maria Cantwell <br />(D-WA) made the following statement Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2448307354544497575.post-38688072003172660672018-07-23T21:00:00.000-07:002018-07-24T20:38:29.010-07:00Hirono Announces $637,000 in Federal Grants to Provide Job Training for Homeless Veterans<br /><br />Earlier this month Senator Mazie Hirono's office issued the following:<br /><br /><br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> July 12, 2018<br /> <br />Hirono Announces $637,000 in Federal Grants to Provide Job Training for Homeless Veterans<br />WASHINGTON, D.C.- Senator Mazie K. Hirono announced today that <br />Hawaii’s U.S.VETS and Catholic Charities will receive a total of <br />$637,258 in 2018 grant funding from the U.S. Department of Labor’s <br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2448307354544497575.post-65982813474276864832018-07-23T19:57:00.000-07:002018-07-24T20:38:29.199-07:00Following Alarming USA Today Story That Pentagon Continues To Block Release Of New Report On The Risk Of Sexual Assault At Each U.S. Military Base, Gillibrand, Ernst, Demand Transparency<br /><br /><br />Senator Kirsten Gillibrand's office issued the following today:<br /><br /><br /><br /> <br /> <br /> July 23, 2018<br /> <br />Following Alarming USA Today Story That <br />Pentagon Continues To Block Release Of New Report On The Risk Of Sexual <br />Assault At Each U.S. Military Base, Gillibrand, Ernst, Demand <br />Transparency, Urge Secretary Mattis To Immediately Publish This Crucial <br />Information And Take Military’s Sexual Assault Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2448307354544497575.post-27697879073808650232018-07-23T18:44:00.000-07:002018-07-24T20:38:29.379-07:00Senator Murray and More Than 145 Members of the House and Senate Speak Out Against Charging Migrant Parents Up To $8/min. to Speak With Their Kids<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /> Senator Patty Murray's office issued the following today:<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /> <br />Senator<br /> Murray and More Than 145 Members of the House and Senate Speak Out <br />Against Charging Migrant Parents Up To $8/min. to Speak With Their Kids<br /><br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Jul 23 2018<br /><br /><br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />(Washington, D.C.) Rep. Jared Polis, D-Colo., Sen. Patty <br />Murray, D-Wash., and Rep. Luis Gutierrez, D-Ill., rallied 143 other <br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2448307354544497575.post-21483797712494261172018-07-23T17:39:00.000-07:002018-07-24T20:38:29.565-07:00Cassidy Applauds Confirmation of Loyola Law Graduate as VA Secretary<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />For Immediate Release<br /><br />Contact:<br /><br /><br />July 23, 2018<br /><br />View Online<br /><br />Ty Bofferding<br /><br />202-224-5824<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Cassidy Applauds Confirmation of Loyola Law Graduate as VA Secretary<br /><br /><br /><br />WASHINGTON— U.S. Senator Bill Cassidy, M.D. (R-LA), a member of the Senate Veterans Affairs Committee, released the following statement today after the Senate voted to confirm Robert Wilkie, a Loyola New Orleans Law Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2448307354544497575.post-46700917802844955822018-07-23T16:36:00.000-07:002018-07-24T20:38:29.748-07:00 Isakson Applauds Senate Confirmation of Robert Wilkie as VA Secretary<br /><br />Senator Johnny Isakson (above) is the Chair of the Senate Veterans Affairs Committee. His office issued the following yesterday:<br /><br />FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE<br />Monday, July 23, 2018<br />Contact: Amanda Maddox, 202-224-7777<br />Camlin Moore, 202-224-9126 <br /><br /> <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Isakson Applauds Senate Confirmation of Robert Wilkie as VA Secretary<br /><br /><br /><br />WASHINGTON – U.S. Senator Johnny Isakson, R-Ga., chairman of the SenateUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2448307354544497575.post-56431661423167661152018-07-23T09:34:00.000-07:002018-07-28T02:30:38.608-07:00Democratic Division<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><h3 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>Democratic messages: "opportunity" vs. "inequality." Hillary vs. Bernie.</b></span></h3><h3 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b><br /></b></span></h3><h3 style="text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">In card games and in political struggles, at some point people lay down their cards. Someone wins. Someone knows they lost.</b></h3><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b><br /></b></span><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhz4TA0Irjnhp4rJ-BaPUFGx4f3DNG_Psc_Cw6FcUM_7Mt6TFZSBQhvwal1IlBginoxbv8gpCywv-G4d8You6Dzq9VS3t0UzCTACWcoHf5-joauzlk4X4fiaydZVCRDgXFPMYpmPfdNXkI/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-07-23+at+6.47.51+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhz4TA0Irjnhp4rJ-BaPUFGx4f3DNG_Psc_Cw6FcUM_7Mt6TFZSBQhvwal1IlBginoxbv8gpCywv-G4d8You6Dzq9VS3t0UzCTACWcoHf5-joauzlk4X4fiaydZVCRDgXFPMYpmPfdNXkI/s400/Screen+Shot+2018-07-23+at+6.47.51+AM.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Articulate. Forceful. Socialist, without apology.</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Currently there is pundit buzz that suggests a potential direction for Democrats. Some politicians are talking the language of "opportunity." Such messaging is now defined as "centrist." Talk of "opportunity" means progressive <i>reform</i>--which is understood to mean keeping the current social and economic structure in place--but becoming more progressive. </span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The electoral goal of opportunity-Democrats is to regain the trust of those moderate Americans who were put off by Hillary, and therefore didn't vote or took a chance on Trump. They want to maintain her policies but change her message. Talk opportunity and jobs. And no one is deplorable. </span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Electorally, they want to re-establish the 2008 and 2012 Obama coalition.</span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Remember, that coalition won the upper midwest. Obama had saved the auto industry in 2009 while headlines noted Romney had said "Drop Dead" to GM. Democratic messaging was to protect American jobs, philosophy and ideology and "discipline of the marketplace jungle" be damned. Republican messaging was that the GM bailout helped those terrible unions, not the bondholders. The bailout was wrong. GM should have gone broke. Chrysler, too. </span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Democratic victory in 2012.</span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Democratic centrists understand an <i>opportunity message</i> to be a bridge that can re-connect the coasts and the manufacturing states. Opportunity<i>--</i>with its implication of variable results due to individual talent and work ethic<i>--</i>takes some of the punch out of the <i>racial resentment issue</i> that works in the opposite direction on behalf of Republicans. The resentment is there to be mined. People naturally resent free riders--"takers," as Mitt Romney called them. The US is a multi-ethnic mix, and it is easy--perhaps inevitable--that people profile and project. <i>We</i> are the good guys, <i>they</i> are the bums. We are provident and hard working; they are lazy, drunk, and criminal. We deserve; they are undeserving.</span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Opportunity-Democrats think they learned the lesson of 2016. </span><br /><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5METuJtyyd9xD_FhZl4kxzT1NGD2pNAYupY3uQa8HPBEaeKYT7CBasnzy2sG2_ELzYgqQJqw4ZHBcyT-Ys3n_Rx9yaXUa14PmwePy1ntzwwGml0pwaRG7RWz963Qrcd2Nkjk1cjHvS4w/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-07-23+at+6.46.00+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5METuJtyyd9xD_FhZl4kxzT1NGD2pNAYupY3uQa8HPBEaeKYT7CBasnzy2sG2_ELzYgqQJqw4ZHBcyT-Ys3n_Rx9yaXUa14PmwePy1ntzwwGml0pwaRG7RWz963Qrcd2Nkjk1cjHvS4w/s400/Screen+Shot+2018-07-23+at+6.46.00+AM.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna893381" target="_blank"><b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Click: NBC News, with video clip.</span></b></a></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>Meanwhile, the activist left learned a very different message from the 2016.</b> They learned the lesson that Democrats--the kind of elected Democrats who served as super delegates and who supported Hillary rather than Bernie, and who are associated with the DCC--are corrupt sellouts. They get PAC donations, both from businesses and "good guy" groups. <b>Leftist Bernie supporters perceive "opportunity" as simply another shuffle of a still-stacked deck. </b>People with privilege and power will arrange to assist their children get onto a fast track, to the disadvantage of the working poor who lack that access. Businesses will arrange to preserve their own wealth and power, with Democratic help.<i> Opportunity </i>means working hard for less and getting nowhere because the system is rigged to keep them in debt paying student loans and health care costs. Opportunity in the status quo means continuation of jobs that pit the American worker against the worker in Mexico and China.</span><br /><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">It is fake reform. It keeps the rich in place, still rich, and the working people still working for peanuts.</span><br /><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Bernie--and now with the charismatic young voice of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, speak of a very different electoral success, and a division of the country between "working people" versus the "millionaires and billionaires" that Bernie Sanders condemned in his 2016 campaign. They perceive a division between the poor and middle class versus the comfortable and rich. </span><br /><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Ocasio-Cortez<i>: "Wherever there are working class people there is hope for the progressive movement</i><b style="font-style: italic;">." </b> She, like Bernie Sanders,<b> </b>openly uses the words "class." The enemy is the system, the stacked deck. Theirs is the progressive version of the Trump message, but with a different target. Trump punched down at the immigrants and blacks and people of color. Bernie punches up, at the beneficiaries of the current economic system.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b><br /></b></span><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQhgXbnESZnt9S9UmjDpgncHXVQNhcsYJ9sxg_C6-Zc0zyP6Op3v_vX2uDNIhk1QpbhqfkjnaiztkBNJFABdWR9BF4c3okGpU_GZMMf7txMEcv1mrfnn-1sJy8TzEnV2FxFe8tOUrz4Uo/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-07-23+at+8.16.58+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQhgXbnESZnt9S9UmjDpgncHXVQNhcsYJ9sxg_C6-Zc0zyP6Op3v_vX2uDNIhk1QpbhqfkjnaiztkBNJFABdWR9BF4c3okGpU_GZMMf7txMEcv1mrfnn-1sJy8TzEnV2FxFe8tOUrz4Uo/s400/Screen+Shot+2018-07-23+at+8.16.58+AM.png" width="241" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Facebook post in progressive group.</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>This blog, and a fundraiser I described,</b> briefly became a source document, revealing the division in the Democratic party. The blog gave a field report on a Kate Brown fundraiser I helped "host." I included an invitation that had been widely circulated, one which suggested various donation levels, including $2,500. </span><br /><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">The campaign asked me to remove the post. </span><br /><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Progressive Facebook groups were full of disapproving comments about the Fundraiser, learned from the brief time it was up.<i> Look at the privilege; people who</i> <i>donate to Kate Brown get to talk and eat cheese with her. </i>Leftist Facebook writers did not consider the event an occasion for good, clean, disinterested, good-government money, providing a fighting chance for the underfunded progressive Democrat struggling against the millions being raised by the Republican opponent. </span><br /><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">No. It was perceived as affirmation of Kate Brown's connection to people who could and would write $1,000 checks on behalf of her campaign.The bad guys. The people who are the apparent sufficient winners in the economic struggle to write those checks. The oppressor class.</span><br /><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>1972.</b> There may simply need to be a cleansing showdown and a general election vote. A Democratic candidate who brings anything less than a social class based policy analysis may simply lose the left and re-elect Republicans. The left may need Bernie Sanders to run. Lay down the cards, see who wins. </span><br /><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Democrats did this in 1972, picking George McGovern, not Hubert Humphrey, then lost big. </span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">The 1972 election results moved the country to the right, but it pushed re-set in the Democratic Party. It </span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">led to electoral win in 1976 with a Democratic Party that would chose a pious, moderate southern governor as its nominee. A 2020 election will be different. Nixon in 1972 was the establishment in the midst of liberal anti-war and racial turmoil. In 2020 a Sanders presidency would be seeking "leftist populist turmoil" as an alternative to "Trump-style ethno-nationalist turmoil." Turmoil vs. turmoil. Pick your favorite.</span><br /><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Trump stirs up anger. He doesn't make the political activists long for quiet or "normalcy." He makes people want to hit back. The people who are put off by the turmoil don't vote. So voters are divided into three groups, all people who are engaged and in some form of turmoil. There is the Trump 40%. Then there are two bodies of Democrats whose numbers have not yet settled out. Some of those are opportunity-Democrats. The others are Bernie class war Democrats. </span><br /><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">I don't currently see a common denominator between the two Democratic groups.</span><br /><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2448307354544497575.post-43931892227491781422018-07-23T06:00:00.000-07:002018-07-24T20:38:29.930-07:00Iraq snapshotMonday, July 23, 2018. An attack in Erbil catches more attention from the western media than the attack on protesters.<br /><br />Let's start with this from Justin Raimondo (ANTIWAR.COM):<br /><br />In an unprecedented move, the Justice Department has released <br /> the FISA application submitted by the FBI to spy on Carter Page, the rather <br /> hapless would-be advisor to the Trump campaign who has been smeared as a “Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2448307354544497575.post-26918562863046745672018-07-22T23:31:00.000-07:002018-07-24T20:38:30.111-07:00The US' responsibilites?THE DAILY STAR notes:<br /><br />Fresh protests hit southern Iraq Sunday as medical sources said 11 <br />demonstrators were killed in two weeks of unrest, sparked by ire over <br />corruption and lack of public services. Security forces remained <br />deployed around Baghdad after struggling Friday to disperse crowds of <br />angry protesters who took to the streets.<br />Demonstrations have <br />roiled swaths of southern and centralUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2448307354544497575.post-1993921858390457352018-07-22T18:00:00.000-07:002018-07-24T20:38:30.291-07:00Amidst More Turmoil, VA Secretary’s Breakfast Attended By IAVAThursday, IAVA issued the following:<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />PRESS CONTACT<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Tel: 212-982-9699<br /><br /><br />press@iava.org<br /><br />WASHINGTON, DC (July 19, 2018) — Yesterday, as controversy continues at VA, Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) Acting Secretary Peter O’Rourke hosted Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America (IAVA) Legislative Director Tom Porter and other VSO leaders for this monthly roundtable discussion and Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2448307354544497575.post-69237972789225634622018-07-22T17:18:00.000-07:002018-07-24T20:38:30.476-07:00Isakson Statement on Trump’s Intent to Nominate Assistant Secretary for VA Accountability, Whistleblower Protection Office<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE<br /><br />Contact: Amanda Maddox, 202-224-7777<br /><br /><br />Friday, July 20, 2018<br /><br />Camlin Moore, 202-224-9126<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Isakson Statement on Trump’s Intent to Nominate Assistant Secretary for VA Accountability, Whistleblower Protection Office<br /><br /><br /><br />WASHINGTON – U.S. Senator Johnny Isakson, R-Ga., chairman of the Senate Committee on Veterans’ Affairs, today released the following statement Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2448307354544497575.post-87622242639216051182018-07-22T09:21:00.000-07:002018-07-28T02:30:39.001-07:00More information on the Push-Poll in Southern Oregon<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><h3 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">What makes you hate? An ugly poll is circulating in the Medford-Ashland area.</span></h3><h3 style="text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i><br /></i></b></h3><div style="text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>"No sooner had I read your blog than I received a call from Survey Sampling International. Wow. Just wow . . . The statements and questions were ugly." </i>Cathy Watt.</b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></b></div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgY6gNRHblBNJ85PjDNQ2l1av85fOZ7jPtdYtiO_tcz2TgcgqIGYzXklmMOGfT3LaJy_LW0ijyNDyx5YJGdafGLBQxmLq_9FOgxtooS_Ravod7Hg5m7Vw9K1WSZrVyxZgr-F9g78yCnWHU/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-07-22+at+9.04.31+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgY6gNRHblBNJ85PjDNQ2l1av85fOZ7jPtdYtiO_tcz2TgcgqIGYzXklmMOGfT3LaJy_LW0ijyNDyx5YJGdafGLBQxmLq_9FOgxtooS_Ravod7Hg5m7Vw9K1WSZrVyxZgr-F9g78yCnWHU/s200/Screen+Shot+2018-07-22+at+9.04.31+AM.png" width="154" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">Jeff Golden</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><div style="text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A picture emerges: the poll was seeking to discern what messages might sway committed voters. </b><b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Four readers of this blog have added their reports.</span></b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The company doing the sampling appears to be attempting to determine what messages or issues might motivate local voters in the race for State Senate between candidates </span><b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Democrat Jeff Golden</b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> and </span><b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Republican Jessica Gomez</b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">. </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The polling company, Survey Sampling, International, website </span><a href="http://www.surveysampling.com/" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" target="_blank">www.surveysampling.com</a><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">, operates under at least two brands. It has a headquarters in Connecticut and offices and call centers in many cities across the US, plus in Europe. They aren't teen age pranksters. They aren't Russian meddlers. They are a real, professional American polling company. Somebody paid them good money for this. We don't know who, yet.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"></span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"></span></div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6EJ12rUkiwjLyfcyn5fd5ZNBF1SASvMvP0esiY4SAb3wErFhLj6CP2F-qF86VIhev-nt4Chl9lO2w8qbxFJuyYUAzQtNsfRR_QKSTX8pHeaI1sT1MhEOyjU0LwoXZcrFU2BA8DF2egx4/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-07-22+at+9.05.10+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6EJ12rUkiwjLyfcyn5fd5ZNBF1SASvMvP0esiY4SAb3wErFhLj6CP2F-qF86VIhev-nt4Chl9lO2w8qbxFJuyYUAzQtNsfRR_QKSTX8pHeaI1sT1MhEOyjU0LwoXZcrFU2BA8DF2egx4/s200/Screen+Shot+2018-07-22+at+9.05.10+AM.png" width="165" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;"><b>Jessica Gomez</b></span></td></tr></tbody></table><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I was contacted by four local citizens, in response to yesterday's blog request. All four respondents are very familiar with political campaigns and are personally visible in civic life. Cathy Watt is Chief Financial Officer of a public affairs consultancy. Casey Stine has been a candidate for public office herself and is the wife of Kevin Stine, Medford City Council Member and former candidate for this office. Gayle Lewis is a public spirited retired Nurse Practitioner who publishes columns in the Jacksonville Review. The fourth is a man who asked to be identified simply as "an active Democratic Party leader."</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">All four poll respondents objected to the poll. It was either not really a poll at all, or it was a bad one.</b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">One informant, Gayle Lewis, said the questioning and poll discipline broke down almost immediately. It turned into a conversation. "It was my pollster's first call. Poor thing. My take: within a few questions it was clear this was not a </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">poll. I challenged the pollster about the questions that could not be answered. At the end, I was being asked questions with wording that disparaged Ms. Gomez. I had answered a question responding with a favorable opinion for her."</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i></i></span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i></i></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The conclusion of this voter was that "the 'poll' was a device to offer language to disparage a candidate."</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i><br /></i></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Cathy Watt reported hearing a purported opinions of Gomez, including </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">"she doesn't pay her taxes, she only supports government funding if it come to her, she is pro-Jordan Cove pipeline." She gave up trying to track the questions, she said, when she heard statements </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">attributed to Jeff Golden, "we spend too much to keep people alive" and that he "supports radical al Qaeda." Watt's memory of the poll was that since she had answered favorably about Gomez near the beginning, all of the questions/statements she was asked to respond to that related to Gomez were hostile toward Gomez.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"></span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Casey Stine spent 17 minutes on the phone with the poll and came away with the impression that it was, in fact, a poll, with an intent to learn what messages might be contained in an advertisement that might change a person's mind. However, the trial statements seemed so implausible and extreme that it was worthless for anything other than trying to put false or confusing information into the local political rumor circles. She cited the question "Jeff Golden <i>supports</i> the LNG pipeline; does that make you very concerned, somewhat concerned, not at all concerned." The premise of the question is implausible for a voter with any sense at all of Golden's political bent. The overall takeaway was that call was in fact <i>intended</i> as a poll, but was actually so botched that it became just a haphazard negative hit piece on everyone. Worthless, except to make trouble.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"></span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The fourth informant, an active participant in local Democratic circles, said he intentionally gave erratic and untruthful answers in an attempt both to confound the poll and to get information about the poll. He reported the same format as had Alan DeBoer, with the poll starting off with "easy" questions regarding Trump, Kate Brown, Knute Buehler, etc.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"></span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">He said he answered "mostly favorable" to Jeff Golden, to see what would happen.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">For him, the questions started with summaries of "pretty run-of-the-mill" Golden positions taken from his website, and asked if those positions seemed convincing and made him feel more or less favorable. The questions then went to Gomez and these were harshly negative, e.g. "Gomez had a history of tax evasion and has had to pay the county thousands in fees." </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The poll then returned to Golden and asked for opinions on whether he knew Golden supported "the biggest tax increase in Oregon's history," creating a sales tax, supported higher gasoline road taxes, and how he felt hearing that Golden was quoted saying "Abortion is a bullshit red meat issue that doesn't actually affect people's lives." This report coincides with the reports of others, by offering the sharpest negative statements about whomever one said one supported. </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"></span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>The poll: malevolent, or simply poorly done?</b></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b><br /></b></span></div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOym7tvo7KAKh2gwFC2kOAy7BVZfILeG7pG2TlhVi8nYtoizh6x4eE5cVzlkKtgwFr2NlMeTgnwFc1M6PZCAMa96ss3WTscCFn1_ovSHuVzGn-kdvaBDxtFdyrnsn6Ij9EVSqCrSW3lRk/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-07-22+at+6.48.10+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; display: inline !important; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="75" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOym7tvo7KAKh2gwFC2kOAy7BVZfILeG7pG2TlhVi8nYtoizh6x4eE5cVzlkKtgwFr2NlMeTgnwFc1M6PZCAMa96ss3WTscCFn1_ovSHuVzGn-kdvaBDxtFdyrnsn6Ij9EVSqCrSW3lRk/s320/Screen+Shot+2018-07-22+at+6.48.10+AM.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">Making calls to the area</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">There is a poll out there. You might be called. It appears to be--and maybe is--a legitimate poll attempting to find what what messages might move opinions. What are Golden's weak spots? Gomez's? What things might you hear about them that would change your mind? How flamboyantly dishonest can an advertisement be, and you still believe it?</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">But apparently the poll chose trial statements to move opinion that are <i>so</i> implausible and extreme that poll recipients' responses were to <i>recoil. </i>The negative statements are too nasty, too implausible. </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>I am hearing from the politically engaged</b>. Alan DeBoer, plus the two people who knew to call Cathy Shaw, plus the four people who responded directly to me having read this blog <i>are not typical voters.</i> They are politically engaged. Politically engaged people hear false statements and reject them because they recognize them to be wrong. </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The happy way to think of this is that the poll constructors badly under-estimate the knowledge and common sense of local voters. People here are too smart to believe flagrant falsehoods. All good, here in Southern Oregon.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Or not.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>The people I <i>didn't</i> hear from</b>. Hundreds, maybe thousands of calls are being made into the Rogue Valley, and I have reports from a total of seven people who called "foul" on the poll and contacted me. All politically engaged. What about all those other people, people interested enough to vote, perhaps, but not so engaged, and who on election day will remember an impression from a startling thing they heard once that stuck in their minds, that Jessica Gomez is a scofflaw who refuses to pay her taxes, or that Jeff Golden is a terrorist sympathizer friendly with al Qaeda? </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Polls like this are not harmless.</span><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>[Still to learn, for future posts. Someone paid for this. Someone with real money. Who?]</b></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2448307354544497575.post-76216676870218504722018-07-21T22:08:00.000-07:002018-07-24T20:38:30.655-07:00Seymour Hersh meanders throughout REPORTER: A MEMOIRSeymour Hersh is an investigative reporter whose work is legendary. His byline is attached to important news stories from the 20th century and the 21st century. His legend will endure.<br /><br />That doesn't make him a good person -- a fact that his latest book, REPORTER: A MEMOIR, makes clear. Nor does it make him a good writer, a fact that the book especially makes clear.<br /><br /> <br /><br />At one point, he Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2448307354544497575.post-12854186204257591672018-07-21T21:49:00.000-07:002018-07-24T20:38:30.835-07:00Iraqis still wait for the world to support their protests<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Jenan MoussaVerified account @jenanmoussa 13h13 hours ago<br /><br /><br />More<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />In case u missed it: <br /><br />Large scale protests have been going on in southern #Iraq recently. This powerful sign sums up the demands of the demonstrators: <br /><br />Revolution of the poor.<br /><br />Electricity.<br /><br />Water.<br /><br />Bread.<br /><br />@akhbar<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />17 replies230 retweets381 likes<br /><br /><br /><br />Reply<br /> 17<br /> <br /><br />Retweet<br /> 230<br /> <br /><br /><br /><br />Like<br /> 381<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />ProtestsUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2448307354544497575.post-9839660168264167512018-07-21T19:00:00.000-07:002018-07-24T20:38:31.021-07:00Tell Israel to Allow Thinking in Its Schools<br /><br />Tell Israel to Allow Thinking in Its Schools<br /><br />By David Swanson, World BEYOND War<br /><br />https://worldbeyondwar.org/tell-israel-to-allow-thinking-in-its-schools/<br /><br />Israel has passed a law allowing its Minister of Education to ban from its schools any person or group who criticizes Israel — apparently something that no teachers or students in Israel are supposed to do either (though some do). The Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2448307354544497575.post-22216899839313625212018-07-21T18:00:00.000-07:002018-07-24T20:38:31.208-07:00DRUM CORPS WORLD July 20th Issue Now Available<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Dear readers:Another weekly issue down, four more editions to go as we wind our way to the conclusion of another great drum corps season in the United States and Europe.The weekend of July 14-15 was a busy one and our staff has provided extensive coverage of seven Drum Corps International, one Drum Corps Associates and one Small Drum Corps Association competition, along with more exciting Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2448307354544497575.post-49388511705935685912018-07-21T17:00:00.000-07:002018-07-24T20:38:31.391-07:00How Art & Activism Are Essential In Creating Change<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Bioneers Pulse – updates from the Bioneers Community<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Greetings fellow Bioneers! <br /><br />“If you’re not outraged, you’re not paying attention”—the sentiment has been reiterated time and again since the 2016 presidential election. This spirit of disillusionment, frustration and anger has inspired a new generation of activists to organize and take action in the face of cruel and Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0